Data reveals Tottenham and Chelsea among Premier League clubs with more points than they truly deserve
Based on the underlying statistics, Tottenham and Chelsea are in a rather fictitious position in the Premier League.
According to Opta’s xPts model, Chelsea and Bournemouth would be in mid-table and Tottenham would be far down in 13th place.
In contrast, Liverpool is in line with their underlying numbers in fourth place, and Arsenal is right where they should be in first position—they are unquestionably the best team in the Premier League.
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How are XPts determined and what are they?
McKay Johns, a specialist in football analytics, claims:
A simple method is to simulate every shot in a match in order to determine xPts. The model will produce a random number between 0 and 1 for every shot.
It declares a shot a goal if the number is less than the shot’s xG value, adds to the simulation tally for that game, and then compares the real goal tallies.
A team receives three points for winning that simulated match, one point for drawing, and zero for losing.
We can calculate the average of all the points a team has earned in the simulations to determine their predicted points, which will lie between 0 and 3, after running the same simulation over a large number of iterations (let’s say 1000). This gives us the result of how frequently a team would have won, drawn, or lost.
In essence, it involves using algorithms to run the game and calculate the average number of points that should have been earned from each match based on the xG that was made and the xG that was given up.
“It gives us a good idea of how many points a team should get on average, especially over a season,” Johns states.
The Top overachievers in the Premier League:
5) Bournemouth
Manager in chare: Andoni Iraola
Despite having Bournemouth in third place, Andoni Iraola emerged as the season’s top manager.
However, based on the fundamental statistics, they should have let up slightly more goals than they have scored, which would put them in ninth place.
If it weren’t for a good custodian and Antoine Semenyo’s incredible play, it appears like their forced defensive makeover in the summer may have cost them dearly.
4) Aston Villa
Manager in charge: Unai Emery
Villa would be in a relegation struggle based on the underlying data; surprisingly, only Burnley are having greater difficulty creating excellent chances.
Only Wolves and Burnley are worse at producing real Big Chances, in fact. While Tottenham gave them a win last time out, they were fortunate to draw with Newcastle and Everton when the opposition was missing barn doors.
They had managed to wriggle their way into the middle of the table. Could their absurd trophy drought come to an end this season?
3) Chelsea
Manager in charge: Enzo Maresca
It’s difficult to judge Chelsea this season since they don’t seem like a cohesive football side, but they have won their last two Premier League games and are only two points behind second-place Manchester City in fifth place.
However, an xPts estimate has them in tenth place, primarily due to the fact that they are giving up better quality opportunities than Wolves, the bottom team, and every other team save Burnley, Manchester United, West Ham, and Nottingham Forest.
On the other hand, Moises Caicedo is the Premier League player who is scoring more goals than his own xG. How good is Enzo Maresca? We truly don’t know the solution.
2) Tottenham
Manager in charge: Thomas Frank
Spurs certainly seem to be a bit of a confused jumble, which is why we wondered last week what their true purpose is.
They ought to be in 13th place instead of sixth, given even Nottingham Forest’s chaos produced greater opportunities all season long.
However, Joao Palhinha, Richarlison, and Brennan Johnson have all significantly surpassed their respective projected numbers this season, making them the squad that is outperforming on its xG the most.
The fact that we would have predicted Spurs to top this list is telling. Even though they should only be one point behind Liverpool, they don’t feel like a team.
1) Sunderland
Manager in charge: Legis Le Bris
Sunderland has done a tremendous job this season, but having a fantastic custodian has undoubtedly helped them greatly under-concede, moving them up to 14th place based on their season-ending xPts.
They were one of numerous clubs to profit from Crystal Palace’s carelessness, and they are undefeated at home without ever truly controlling a game.
However, their recruitment has been excellent, so no one would doubt their position in the Premier League’s upper tiers.
