Thus, three is on the verge of turning into six. Once the last formalities of Ipswich’s relegation are finalized, most likely this weekend, the last six teams promoted from the Championship will have immediately returned to the lower division.
This information isn’t fresh, as the trapdoor has been steadily closing on the promoted trio since Wolves eventually took action a few months back, but the enormity of that trio’s failure becomes more evident with each passing week.
The conventional ’40-point barrier’ has rarely been a true necessity for survival in the Premier League, yet witnessing teams unsteadily achieving mathematical safety over a month before the season concludes, without hitting that target, remains unsettling.
The previous season was quite similar, as Nottingham Forest's points deduction created a false impression of how near the teams that were promoted and then relegated were to those ranked higher. Forest struggled last season, but even without the points deduction, they would have comfortably finished 10 points ahead of Luton.
All other teams were at least 13 points ahead of the relegation zone.
Last year’s relegated sides collectively gathered a paltry 66 points over 114 matches, and this year’s teams are performing even worse, requiring a surprising 16 points from their remaining 15 matches merely to equal last year’s notoriously weak bottom three.
Similar to last year, the bottom three have collectively deteriorated as the season has progressed. These are not teams that simply need a bit more time to adapt to the Premier League; these are teams that have shockingly recognized just how inadequate they are, sinking deeper and deeper as the initial optimism following their promotion bursts one by one.
A single year of this might be regarded as an unusual event, but two is becoming increasingly unsettling. The Premier League may not be at a stage where they need to implement direct actions to address the issue – another important question is whether they actually view this as a problem – however, if a similar incident occurs next season, the conversation will be inevitable.
Particularly if Sheffield United is the team that joins Leeds and Burnley in their unsuccessful attempt to return to the top division. If three major clubs with a strong recent record in the Premier League can't close the gap, what chance is there for anyone else?
Leeds offered excellent value during their last promotion and should be anticipated to make a strong effort, but it’s important to recall that during their previous promotion, they unexpectedly acquired one of the world's most legendary and impactful coaches, along with a player likely on the verge of winning the Ballon d’Or and a Patrick Bamford who netted multiple goals. That's an immense amount of lightning to attempt to contain once more.
And even then, it functioned only for a short time. Burnley and Sheffield United are among the clubs that have immediately returned to the lower division after promotion, emphasizing a related issue with parachute payments that affects a growing group of teams stuck in a continuous state of uncertainty, too small for the Premier League yet too large for the Championship.
It should also be pointed out that the six clubs that have undergone the promotion-relegation double-header in the past two years have all messed it up in different manners. Some have naively thought that the football which led them out of the Championship could just as successfully maintain their position in the Premier League. Some individuals have just been promoted too soon in their career to handle it effectively. A few have accomplished both. Certain individuals have emphasized the importance of Chris Wilder.
They all have measures to prevent relegation; none is completely free from criticism for failing to make it engaging.
Any pessimistic conversation about this subject must recognize that the three squads that achieved promotion before the unfortunate six were Nottingham Forest, Fulham, and Bournemouth, all of which are currently faring quite well, thank you.
Currently, the most logical forecast for next season's Premier League standings places Leeds in 18th, Burnley in 19th, and the team that wins the play-offs at the bottom. And then Palace in 12th place because Palace consistently finishes 12th.
Even at this time last year, teams that had been promoted could have looked at Forest and possibly Everton, recognizing an opportunity to identify the crucial 'if we can just finish above...' team. Where is that squad at this time?
Man United and Spurs won’t be flirting with the 40-point threshold again next season since United will acquire an Amorim-suitable squad while Spurs will hire a genuine football manager, and it certainly won't be Scott Parker. Everton are optimistic, Wolves have brought in a solid manager to achieve sensible outcomes with a quite good squad, and Forest are heading to the Champions League.
This summer, certain foreseeable challenges may arise for various clubs within the Premier League’s emerging ‘middle class.’ Bournemouth will likely lose two or three players and possibly their manager as well. Brentford will almost certainly part ways with Bryan Mbeumo, as he has just one year remaining on his contract. Wolves are certain to part ways with Matheus Cunha.
However, the strong possibility in all these instances is that each of those clubs will adjust and manage just as they have previously, their Premier League standing and finances solidified by another year of participation, with all those challenges also contributing to an increase in their revenue.
They will all still be in a more advantageous position than promoted teams with insufficient squads for the upcoming challenges, as well as two managers who have visibly struggled at that elevated level. Leeds are already considering parting ways.
It really only leaves West Ham, who seem somewhat vulnerable for the upcoming season. That’s a rather startling criticism of a club with their assets, but you’d still conclude that, on the whole, it’s considerably more probable they will progress rather than decline following a Graham Potter pre-season and expected additional investment in the team.
Circumstances can and will alter. Events can and will astonish us. Currently, no member of the Existing Seventeen appears to be at risk of falling below 40 points, and there is little reason for substantial hope that any of the promoted clubs could change that even if they do.
We find ourselves questioning if the moment has come to take significant action, such as easing the FFP regulations for teams that have been promoted.
It would be inappropriate for us to imply that Leeds’ path to quick success is just to overextend financially, but a brief comparison of Forest’s current position to the six teams promoted since suggests that violating those rules has transitioned from a playful notion to a serious consideration on a previously reputable football website.
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